University administrators are scaling back campus developments as physical and digital investments become ¡°increasingly an either-or proposition¡±, research suggests.

A survey of over 50 chief operating officers (COOs) in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the UK has revealed qualms about ¡°spending big¡± on bricks and mortar, with just 31 per cent of respondents considering ¡°on-campus student experience¡± a strategic priority ¨C down from 78 per cent three years ago.

Fifty-six per cent say they have reduced their capital investment plans while just 25 per cent proposed spending more on physical infrastructure.

Administrators are forced to ¡°choose between physical and digital environments¡±, despite mounting scepticism that information technology overhauls deliver productivity improvements, according to the by the Nous Group management consultancy.

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The study is Nous¡¯ third probe of the views of professional services leaders in tertiary institutions. It finds that administrators simply could not ignore the disruptive inevitability of artificial intelligence and automation.

¡°We are on a steam train as a society when it comes to digital,¡± said Nous principal Zac Ashkanasy. ¡°The steam train is going downhill and it¡¯s getting faster.¡±

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Cyber protection, in particular, could not be disregarded because attacks could be ¡°devastating¡±. Yet administrators had bitter experience of ¡°digital disappointments¡±, including half-hearted adoption of learning management systems and difficulties integrating student management software with pre-existing systems and data.

Core corporate services systems had been particularly disappointing, Ashkanasy said. ¡°You usually see an overspend and you don¡¯t see the benefits realised in any material way.¡±

An unnamed Australian COO cited in the report had a similar view. ¡°This belief that digital transformation creates productivity gains is not real.¡±

Nevertheless, administrators tend to support digital investments over ¡°campus redevelopment¡±, amid widespread misgivings about the cost-effectiveness of physical infrastructure. The report cites research findings that about five in 10 seats in US university classrooms ¨C and more than nine in 10 seats in one Australian institution¡¯s lecture theatres ¨C are typically empty.

It says administrators are increasingly using campus space for student accommodation and commercial income while eyeing savings through cuts to academic offices ¨C the ¡°holy grail¡± of space utilisation, according to one respondent.

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Universities¡¯ finances are ¡°on the precipice¡± of snowballing costs, constrained earning opportunities and greater global uncertainty, the report says. Meanwhile they are subject to ¡°greater operational complexity¡± because of growing expectations from students, regulators and policymakers, along with rapid technological change.

¡°A twenty-year golden age of growth for the university sector has ended,¡± it says, with 57 per cent of university leaders now expecting their institutions¡¯ financial performance to deteriorate ¨C up from 25 per cent three years ago.

Many administrators have accepted the need for ¡°collaborative procurement¡± and shared backroom services, while institutional mergers are also becoming ¡°inevitable¡± ¨C particularly in the UK. ¡°The question is when, not if,¡± the report says, explaining that closures may be the only alternative.

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COOs have largely accepted the political imperative of containing their foreign enrolments, the survey finds. The proportion ranking ¡°international enrolment expansion¡± as a key financial sustainability strategy plunged from 63 per cent in 2023 to 34 per cent this year.

Instead, administrators are looking for savings by cutting ¡°low margin¡± courses ¨C something long considered ¡°anathema¡±, particularly in Canada and the UK, but now under consideration as other administrative efficiencies prove elusive. Over one-half of respondents in the UK and two-thirds in Australia now consider removing low-enrolment programmes a ¡°useful strategy¡±, the report finds.

Ashkanasy said the days when universities could ¡°grow their way out of trouble¡± were over, requiring them to ¡°think much more carefully about mission and margin¡±. But severing the ¡°long tail of low-enrolment courses¡± is ¡°incredibly risky¡±, he warned.

¡°Academic identity and the delivery of a course are quite intertwined,¡± he said. ¡°It¡¯s not the same in other sectors. If we don¡¯t deliver this course, who will?¡±

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john.ross@timeshighereducation.com