UK universities are mounting a last-ditch effort to sway policymakers ahead of the imminent publication of a new White Paper that many fear will propose restrictions on international students and drive institutions into further financial despair.

With speculation mounting that the long-awaited policy document that will outline the country’s approach to legal migration will appear as early as Monday, uncertainties over what stance it will take on student visas was adding to the nervousness felt in an already cash-strapped sector.

Briefing ahead of the document appearing has focused on proposals to shrink the graduate route as well as limit study visas, with the Labour government coming under pressure to appear tough on immigration following gains for Nigel Farage’s Reform Party in the local elections.

The contents of the paper have been tightly controlled in Westminster, Jamie Arrowsmith, director of Universities UK International (UUKi), said in an update to members. But he believes “we have had some success in rallying support at a senior level across government, and that the very serious implications for the sector’s financial health, and for the economy, are understood”.��

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It comes as the Office for Students published its latest financial sustainability report, which found that 43 per cent of institutions are facing a deficit this year, mainly because of a downturn in international students following visa restrictions brought in by the previous government.��

The regulator also modelled four future scenarios based on variable numbers of students entering higher education. It projected that if there is a larger reduction of student numbers in 2025-26 and no growth from then onwards, 200 providers will be in deficit by 2027-28.��

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Visa figures published by the Home Office on 8 May showed a continued recovery in student visa applications following the drops of last year, with 14,800 in April 2025 compared with 9,600 in the same month a year ago. But many fear this will be tarnished by further restrictions.

Both Universities UK and the Russell Group have issued renewed calls on the government to ensure a stable immigration system for foreign students in response to financial pressures.

Universities were also attempting to show the worth of international students to the economy, and the lack of public support for restrictions.

Analysis by consultancy firm Public First commissioned by the University of York highlighted education as the single largest export sector in 26 British constituencies, making the top three in 102.

When compared with other leading industries, such as car manufacturing and pharmaceuticals, higher education is the most widespread top export, a report says.

“In spite of the fact that the politics of migration overall is very difficult and Labour feel the political impetus to reduce net migration…international education and, in particular, international students are propping up local economies,” Jess Lister, director for education at Public First, told ̽����Ƶ.

“There is a political risk in not doing anything about net migration numbers, but there is also a political risk in damaging local economies,” she continued. “International students can feel like the low hanging fruit, but the economic consequences of that could be a lot deeper if you don't think about it in the round.”

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Nick Hillman, director of the Higher Education Policy Institute, warned policymakers against “drawing the wrong conclusions” after the election.��

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“Poll after poll suggests people know the benefits that international students bring,” Hillman said. “Perhaps that is why Farage himself has not been entirely consistent over the years in response to international students.”

New polling from thinktank More in Common and UCL rushed out before the White Paper shows the majority of Britons believe international students staying after their studies to work is a good thing for the UK, while those who have switched to voting Reform since July 2024 are more likely than not to think positively about international students staying in the country.

The Campaign for Science and Engineering (CaSE), along with 36 other organisations, has written to parliamentarians who have previously shown support for research and development to emphasise the importance of an “internationally competitive and flexible immigration policy for researchers and international students”.

“The UK’s immigration policy must be reformed to recognise that we are in an international competition to attract and retain global talent”, the letter says. “We are concerned that the consequences of a more restrictive immigration policy for skilled workers and international students would pose a risk to the UK’s world-leading R&D status and university financial stability, with impacts for local economies, and the government’s growth mission and Industrial Strategy aims”.

For universities, at this stage, Lister said it was crucial to understand Labour’s motivations.

“They’re not doing this because they hate international students,” she said. “They’re doing this because there’s a political risk if they don’t do something to tackle high net migration numbers.”

She said the sector needed to reassure the government that “it will continue to recruit reasonably and responsibly” as well as “admitting cases where it hasn’t always had the best intentions in mind”.

“I think a world in which we have an international student settlement that feels more sustainable and feels less fragile and feels less urgent is going to put us all in a better political space in the long term.”

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helen.packer@timeshighereducation.com