A university education at a Western university used to be an unquestioned fallback route for Asian students who failed to secure entry to one of the top institutions in their own countries ¨C and even for some of those that did. But then came Covid, inflation and Western crackdowns.

China¡¯²õ long, harsh pandemic lockdown, which prevented Chinese students from going abroad and those already abroad from returning home, led many commentators to wonder at the time whether students from that country would ever again head to the West for study in such vast numbers given the risk of being stranded so many thousands of miles from home in the event of future global shocks.

Those doubts were deepened by the high inflation prompted by Covid-era disruption to global supply chains, which saw international fees shoot up in many anglophone destinations to cover universities¡¯ increasing costs.

¡°An Indian student doing a master¡¯²õ in the UK now faces costs about 30 per cent higher than three or four years ago,¡± said Rob Grimshaw, CEO of StudyIn, a student recruitment platform. ¡°If they go and study in Japan, the tuition fees would be three or four thousand dollars; in Germany, they might pay none at all.¡±

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They might also find it easier to get a visa in those countries. Unusually, the ¡°big four¡± international study destinations ¨C the US, UK, Canada and Australia ¨C are all cracking down on international student numbers at the same time, amid concerns about high immigration levels.

The number of international students arriving in the US in August, compared with the same period last year, according to The New York Times, the largest decline recorded outside of the pandemic. That came on the back of?, for 19 countries,??of visa applicants¡¯ social media history and of visas for?pro-Palestinian speech.

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Meanwhile, Canada¡¯²õ imposition of caps on study visas in January 2024 prompted a in the number of study permits issued in 2024 compared with the previous year, according to government data obtained by the Canadian Bureau for International Education. The number issued far overshot the government¡¯²õ aim to cut international enrolments by only 35 per cent.

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But it isn¡¯t all one-way traffic on international enrolments in the big four. Australia introduced de facto caps on study visas last year by slowing down processing when universities reach 80 per cent of their government allocations. Yet enrolments still grew by between July 2024 and July 2025, and the country is raising its allocations for next year by another 9 per cent, even while it doubles down on the capping system itself.

Meanwhile, the number of student visa applications for UK courses over a 12-month period has started rising again, recent figures show, after falling in the wake of the January 2024 introduction of a ban on dependants of all students except postgraduate research students. The year-on-year rise to September 2025 was only 1 per cent, but September itself saw a full 10 per cent increase in sponsored study visa applications ¨C and a 30 per cent increase in applications from dependants ¨C compared with the same month in 2024, according to .

The uptick came despite plans to shorten the duration of the post-study work visa from two years to 18 months from January 2026. However, that decision may yet come back to bite UK universities that are heavily dependent on international students for their survival, according to Meti Basiri, co-founder and chief executive of international application platform ApplyBoard. Post-study work rights are now the decisive factor in where international students ultimately enrol, he said: ¡°Change a work-rights rule and you see [the effect] immediately.¡±

So to what extent might all these changes in student sentiment and immigration regulation affect cross-border student flows, particularly from the traditional big source countries in Asia?

In a statement, the international educational consultancy Bonard Education told ̽»¨ÊÓƵ that ¡°students still want to travel but are really looking into other options, with a strong diversion away from the big four.¡± But Simon Marginson, professor of higher education at the University of Oxford, believes it is premature to proclaim a revolution.

¡°We¡¯re a long way from really getting clarity in mobility patterns,¡± he said. ¡°There¡¯²õ no hard data yet that shows a rapid structural change in flows to Asia or the Middle East. What we¡¯re seeing is a slow burn.¡±

Yet policy moves within Asia are potentially enhancing the attractiveness for Asian students of remaining closer to home, Marginson added. For instance, ¡°Hong Kong has just announced that institutions can now enrol up to 50 per cent of their students from non-local fee-paying sources,¡± he noted ¨C a reform designed to help the territory position itself as a global hub. And several Hong Kong-based universities have reported sharp recent increases in international applications after the city?moved to position itself as a welcoming destination for US-based students and researchers in particular, given Donald Trump¡¯²õ assaults on US higher education.

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Other Asian countries, too, are actively seeking a greater share of the international student market, including Japan, South Korea?and?Malaysia.

the country hosted nearly 340,000 international students by May 2024 ¨C a 21 per cent increase year-on-year and well on track towards meeting the government¡¯²õ target to host 400,000 overseas students by 2033. Nearly 125,000 of those (37 per cent) came from?China, according to Futao Huang, a professor in the Research Institute for Higher Education at Japan¡¯²õ Hiroshima University. Significant numbers also originated from Vietnam (53,000), Nepal (38,000), South Korea, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Myanmar, with recent growth also from?India and some African countries?under new cooperation schemes.

Asian students are being drawn to Japan by the country¡¯²õ combination of low fees, safety and research opportunities, Huang said, as well as the career pathways opened up by a Japanese degree, especially in STEM and applied social sciences, both within Japan and across East and South-east Asia.

¡°Many graduates from China, Vietnam, Indonesia and other countries now find regional employers value Japanese academic and professional training, particularly due to Japan¡¯²õ technological and organisational reputation,¡± Huang said.

And while immigration has ¡°become a more contested issue¡± in Japan recently, with the country¡¯²õ , Sanae Takaichi, expected to introduce new restrictions, ¡°the student mobility agenda is treated separately from the broader immigration debate¡±, Huang said. ¡°The government still views international students as a source of skilled human capital and future contributors to Japan¡¯²õ labour force and innovation ecosystem.¡± Hence, the country¡¯²õ 400,000 international student target remains in place.

One key to Japan¡¯²õ internationalisation success is that most national and private universities ¨C particularly those involved in international programmes ¨C now offer?English-medium instruction (EMI), especially at the graduate level, Huang said. ¡°For example, universities such as the University of Tokyo, Kyoto University, Osaka University and Hiroshima University?offer full-degree programmes taught in English as part of Japan¡¯²õ?Global 30?or?Top Global University initiatives. However, language barriers continue to influence international students¡¯ academic and social integration.¡±

South Korea has also greatly expanded its EMI tuition, helping it to surpass its goal two years early by the middle of this year ¨C with the majority of its enrolments from Vietnam, Uzbekistan and China. A 2022 report by the Korea Educational Development Institute reported that even then, 882 out of 9,843 university departments were already offering EMI, and many universities now aim to teach more than half of their courses in English by 2030, according to Kyuseok Kim, centre director of IES Abroad in Seoul. Some are going even further, introducing entire English-taught programmes (ETPs): ¡°These use English not just for teaching but for tutorials, reading lists, co-curricular activities and even, in many cases, student services,¡± he wrote in a recent article for THE.

Nevertheless, Korea struggles to attract students from Asia¡¯²õ English-speaking giant. Just?1,584?were studying in South Korean higher education in 2024 ¨C less than 1 per cent of the country's total international student population and less than 0.2 per cent of India¡¯²õ vast and ever-growing student diaspora. The country also has a growing problem with students overstaying their visas, with cases rising?from 8,200 in 2017 to 36,000 in 2023?¨C more than one in 10?¨C?while nearly 8,900 international students dropped out or were expelled in 2024: an increase of nearly 30 per cent since 2020. As in some Western countries, this has prompted concerns about abuse of the international visa system, according to Kim, particularly by Vietnamese students, who account for more than four in five illegal overstayers.

Even China itself has got in on the EMI act, with recent reports suggesting it is set to overtake Europe on the number of English-taught degrees it offers. This has attracted of international students to China, though not all of them are Asian: the country also has significant numbers from Africa, as it seeks to build economic and political ties with the continent.

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Conversely, Singapore has recently launched an initiative to attract more Chinese students by introducing Mandarin-language instruction. Many regional universities in Korea are also offering special master¡¯²õ programmes for Chinese students, according to Kim ¨C but few of these are in Mandarin since only a ¡°tiny portion¡± of academic staff in Korea are fluent in the language.

¡°Either Korean or English could potentially be used, but what is striking is that some students enrolling in those curated programmes don¡¯t always seem to have adequate language skills in either,¡± he said. ¡°Another important question is whether lecturers at those regional colleges have English-language abilities strong enough to teach and coach those students. If an underlying motivation is, for institutions, to generate revenues or, for students, to get a fast-track master¡¯²õ degree at a reasonable price¡­a quality issue inevitably arises.¡±

Chinese students are also being drawn increasingly to Malaysia. The South-east Asian country is aiming to enrol 250,000 students from overseas by the end of the decade under its Education Development Plan after?seeing its international enrolments surge in recent years. Official counts listed just over 100,000 foreign students in 2023, but applications rose sharply in 2024 as the government reaffirmed its 250,000-student target. A proposed 6 per cent tax on overseas students at private universities is not expected to dent its growth trajectory.

Meanwhile, Vietnam is also seeking to position itself as a regional educational hub and is considering allowing international students to work up to 20 hours per week, as part of a wider package of ¡°breakthrough policies¡± for education and training now being put before the country¡¯²õ national assembly. But while international enrolments are increasing, they had only reached 22,000 by the end of 2024, with most students coming from neighbouring Laos and Cambodia.

Chinese and Singaporean universities¡¯ attractiveness to students from elsewhere in Asia is enhanced greatly by the recent leaps they have taken in international rankings. However, in a region where prestige counts for so much, universities in other countries still face an uphill struggle to draw the best students, experts suggest.

In ̽»¨ÊÓƵ¡¯²õ latest World University Rankings, for instance, only four of the top 30 institutions and 17 of the top 100 are in Asian countries ¨C and only four of the latter are from beyond Singapore, China and Hong Kong: Tokyo (26th), Kyoto (61st), the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST, joint 70th) and Yonsei University¡¯²õ Seoul campus (86th).

Like Marginson, Philip Altbach, founding director of Boston College¡¯²õ Center for International Higher Education, sees diversification rather than displacement in international student flows. ¡°The large anglophone countries remain top choices for reasons of quality and prestige, but Europe ¨C especially Germany ¨C is picking up interest given its English-medium programmes and lower costs.¡±

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Continental Europe has 24 universities in THE¡¯²õ latest top 100, five of which are German, and Germany is a name that comes up frequently when you ask student recruitment agencies and pathway providers about trends in the flows of Asian students.

A representative of Acumen, an international education consultancy, said that among students from countries such as Japan, Korea, Malaysia and the UAE, the popularity of continental Europe was ¡°going up¡± fastest, with Germany ¡°in a different league¡± from others, such as France, Italy and the Netherlands.

Another factor is post-study work rights. According to ApplyBoard¡¯²õ Basiri, students¡¯ primary questions when it comes to deciding between countries are ¡°Can I work there?¡±, ¡°Is it affordable?¡± and ¡°What is the return on my investment?¡± For many, Germany provides the cleanest ¡°yes¡± to all three questions, he said.

According to the DAAD, the German Academic Exchange Service, ?380,000 international students?in the 2023-24 academic year, including from India, the largest national group. This was a 15 per cent increase on the previous year and more than double the number five years earlier ¨C again, helped by a move towards English-medium master¡¯²õ courses.

However, Pushkar, director of the International Centre at Goa University, does not see Germany rivalling the big four as a destination for Indian students any time soon.

He divides outbound Indian students into two groups: those who see overseas study as a pathway to migration?to affluent countries, especially to anglophone nations,?and?a smaller number of students, primarily from affluent families or with strong family ties,?who go?abroad?simply to study,?and?then return home. The former?prefer?anglophone destinations, he believes, because they?offer clearer routes to permanent residence.?

¡°I do not see other destinations ever matching the numbers that the big four host countries did unless they?begin?absorbing larger?numbers of?graduates into their workforce?and liberalise their immigration policies,¡± he said. ¡°In addition, size matters. The higher education sector in?non-anglophone countries does not have the kind of capacity for international students that the?US and the UK?have.¡±

Nevertheless, the growing restrictions and escalating costs of study in anglophone countries is forcing both groups of Indian students to consider other options, such?as Germany and France, which combine low tuition fees, growing English-language instruction and an openness to international students, Pushkar said.

And student sentiment elsewhere in Asia also suggests there is potential for at least a partial redrawing of academic migration routes. StudyIn¡¯²õ Grimshaw said Asian parents are ¡°more cautious at the moment; they pick up on how international students are being talked about¡± in the big four nations and often prefer destinations perceived as ¡°safe, stable, maybe a bit closer to home¡±.

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As a result, Bonard Education advises anglophone institutions to develop more ¡°near-home¡± dual-degree or pathway models for Asian students, linking Asian and European campuses. Such transnational education ¨C via branch campuses or joint degrees ¨C is likely to become an increasingly central part of future recruitment strategies for Asian students, the consultancy believes ¨C provided that quality assurance keeps pace. And it advises universities to diversify recruitment beyond China and India to emerging markets such as Vietnam, Bangladesh and Central Asia.

IES Abroad¡¯²õ Kim said that Korean students ¨C the for US universities after India and China ¨C are starting to ask whether the pain of an anglophone degree is worth the gain: ¡°With rising costs and unfriendly policy changes, students ask if foreign degrees still improve employability.¡±

And Hiroshima¡¯²õ Huang observed that post-pandemic attitudes in China, too, have tilted toward ¡°safe, structured and shorter mobility¡±, with Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong and Thailand becoming increasingly popular.

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¡°Ranking is still important,¡± he said, ¡°but families now weigh programme quality and career paths more pragmatically.¡±