The government’s plans to tighten international student visa compliance rules could see the number of students coming from what were formerly seen as growth markets decline in another blow for cash-strapped institutions.

New rules proposed by the government to tighten immigration controls would mean universities have to ensure that no more than 5 per cent of the international students they sponsor are refused visas, down from the 10 per cent permitted under current regulations.��

Universities have said this metric is out of their control and have told the Home Office they need more data about student visas in order to comply.

The proposals have also led some providers to consider withdrawing completely from countries perceived as high risk. In particular, students from Nigeria, Pakistan and Sri Lanka are to overstay their visas and attempt to claim asylum.��

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This suggests visa applications from these countries will face greater scrutiny from immigration officials, putting universities at risk of breaching the new metrics.��

Under the new conditions, “the margin for error is very tight”, said Steven McGuire, pro vice-chancellor international at the University of East Anglia.��

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“The biggest loss any university can suffer is the loss of its licence [to sponsor student visas]. Any marginal revenue is completely outweighed by the loss of that.

“It is possible it will have a pre-emptive effect” that will see universities recruit “at lower levels” in certain markets to avoid non-compliance, he continued.�� 

While this may be welcome news for the government, which is keen to reduce net migration figures, it could cause further financial damage to universities dependent on international student income.��

While major student markets like India�����Ի���Nigeria appear to be on the decline, Pakistan and Sri Lanka were two of the countries formerly expected to help bolster international student flows at a time when universities are increasingly desperate for cash.��

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, the number of new student visas issued to Pakistani students for  major anglophone destinations – Australia, Canada, the UK and the US – nearly quadrupled between 2019 and 2024. The country also became the UK’s third-largest source of new international students in 2024. Sri Lanka has also seen a 468 per cent increase in students going to the UK over the past five years, according to the British Council.��

“We have been very mindful in not attracting the wrong crowd and, up until now, we have passed any UKVI checks with flying colours,” said Hassan Latif Khan, Pakistan country manager at Robert Gordon University.��

But, he said, as an institution recruiting a smaller share of the Pakistani student numbers, it would only take a small number of non-compliant students to breach the threshold, compared with those enrolling hundreds, or even thousands, of students.

Under the new rules, the numbers will “logically come down”, Khan predicted, but he said the policy was a “good start” to improving responsible recruitment in Pakistan.��

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The “majority of the Pakistani students [are] unfortunately getting a bad name”, he said, because of a small number abusing “loopholes” in the system.��

“It has been challenging for certain institutions that were over-recruiting, but for the vast majority, it has been very welcome,” he said.��

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helen.packer@timeshighereducation.com