The UK university admissions cycle has entered a ¡°new normal¡±, with clearing playing an increasingly important role, amid signs that young people¡¯s interest in higher education could be ¡°plateauing¡±, the chief executive of Ucas has said.

Speaking ahead of this year¡¯s A-level results day, Jo Saxton said perceptions that clearing was a ¡°bargain basement and for the people who had been unsuccessful¡± were outdated.

¡°That is definitely not how current applicants perceive it. For current applicants, it¡¯s the mechanism by which they change their mind,¡± she said, noting that a fifth of those using clearing are going back to one of their original five choices.

¡°It¡¯s a misrepresentation to suggest that it¡¯s a trading-up activity. It is about students trusting their instincts and going back to their curated playlists of favourites, which they¡¯ve researched and probably visited. They¡¯re not blindfolded, throwing a dart at a dart board. It¡¯s researched.¡±

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Many students are choosing to stay closer to home, and while ¡°studying locally is absolutely the right thing for some students¡­if the finance package is the barrier¡­that is a problem¡±, Saxton told a webinar hosted by the Higher Education Policy Institute.

More students than ever are expected to get into their first-choice university this year, because it is anticipated that?universities might be more lenient?on those who do not meet their offers. Institutions are looking to bolster their domestic?undergraduate numbers amid the UK sector¡¯s financial crisis and unpredictable international student numbers.

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But the overall proportion of young people applying to university could be ¡°plateauing¡±, said Maggie Smart, director of data and analysis at Ucas.?

While applications and offers appear to be up this year, this has been driven partly by a larger cohort as a result of population growth and ¡°active offer-making¡± from universities, she said.

¡°[But] by the end of the cycle, we¡¯re probably looking relatively flat in terms of the proportion and that¡¯s a difference from last year, where we actually saw an increase in the entry rate.¡±

¡°If you take a very long view, we saw a very predictable increase in the proportion of UK 18-year-olds who were applying to Ucas for higher education,¡± she said, but there are signs that this could be changing.

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Although?things ¡°went awry¡± in 2021 and 2022 because of?the pandemic, figures had been expected to return to ¡°normal¡± from 2023 ¡°but what we¡¯ve seen now is a deviation from that previous increasing trend, and it¡¯s looking like more of a plateau in demand¡±.?

¡°What we need to stop and ask is: was it ever reasonable that it would continue increasing forever? Or have we reached a plateau?¡±

Asked whether student number caps or ¡°stability mechanisms¡± should be considered to offer greater stability to the sector,?especially for lower-tariff institutions?that are increasingly recruiting fewer students, Saxton said she preferred ¡°[student] choice]¡±, adding: ¡°I wouldn¡¯t want anything that ended up being a cap in effect on the availability of places for students to study.¡±

¡°That said,¡± she added, ¡°[Ucas] is working with the wider sector, where we can, to make sure that things like the admissions code are adhered to so that admissions are fair for everybody, providers included.¡±

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juliette.rowsell@timeshighereducation.com