A plan for post-16 education due this summer could give cash-strapped English universities some answers about what support the government is prepared to offer, but a wider focus on skills could see higher education pushed down the agenda.

This week’s spending review is expected to be quickly followed by the publication of a government White Paper on reform of the tertiary sector.

While most policy decisions are expected to be left to the latter document, the spending review could provide clues to the government’s priorities and will show how much the Department for Education (DfE) has to play with amid significant budget cuts across all departments.

“If the government is committed to tying up a huge amount of the DfE budget on commitments relating to early years, schools and other parts of the education system, then that will reduce their manoeuvre to do the things that we need them to do,” Vivienne Stern, chief executive of Universities UK (UUK), told ̽����Ƶ.

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Despite the government having previously committed to setting out clear plans for higher education reforms, there are concerns the sector could take a back seat in the post-16 document.��

In the meantime, many of the recent decisions made by ministers will have a net negative impact on institutions.

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�ٲ��ٲ��� estimates that universities will take a £1.4 billion hit in 2025-26 as a result of policy decisions made by the Labour government since it came into office last summer.

This analysis attempts to illustrate “how much government is taking out of this system at the same time as saying they’re going to work…in partnership with the university sector, to put it on a firmer financial footing,” said Stern.��“We've heard that a lot, but the action tells a different story.”

Although the government has committed to raising tuition fees in the coming academic year, the financial gains are far outweighed by other policy changes, including a rise in employer national insurance contributions, cuts to the strategic priorities grant distributed by the Office for Students and the removal of funding for level 7 degree apprenticeships.��

With a levy on international student fees also being mooted, universities could see themselves pushed further into the red without some government intervention.��

For ministers though, the focus of the upcoming White Paper appears to be on the wider skills agenda – which could leave institutions no clearer on the government’s plan for reform.

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According to Stern, different parts of the DfE seem to be attempting to “bolt together” higher education with colleges and adult skills.

“I think there’s a question about how far they can get in the post-16 White Paper to…integrate that,” she said, adding that there are concerns universities are being treated like “big schools”, with their contributions to research and innovation, and support for public services, overlooked.

“I’m a little bit sceptical myself about whether you can put a vision for the research and innovation system, all the ways that the university system supports the health service, in a post-16 White Paper,” Stern continued.��

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“What I want is a post-16 White Paper which reflects the extremely important role that universities play in the formation of human capital, talent, skills, right the way up to level 8 and beyond.”

With significant cuts being made across the government, the simplest concession for policymakers appears to be indexing tuition fees in line with inflation.��

However, according to Jonathan Simons, head of education at consultancy Public First, there was a “risk” that this could be easily wiped out again, with universities no clearer on what awaits them long term.

“You end up in a world where the best outcome you get is another one year’s worth of indexation rises that may or may not be completely wiped out and still no sense as to what a kind of two year, three year, five year plan looks like.”

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helen.packer@timeshighereducation.com