Large public sector pay rises may put “moral pressure” on UK universities to up their pay offer, but experts warned that a lack of political will could prolong the stalemate between universities and staff.

The Labour government has looked to separate itself from the previous Conservative administration and bring an end to longstanding industrial disputes by offering junior doctors an average pay rise of 22 per cent across two years, while offering civil servants about 5 per cent and teachers 5.5 per cent.

In contrast, last month the Universities and Colleges Employers Association (UCEA) made staff a final offer of 2.5 per cent, although the lowest paid will get up to 5.7 per cent.

The University and College Union (UCU) has rejected the offer, and is seeking an improvement.

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Gregor Gall, visiting professor in industrial relations at the University of Leeds and a research associate at the University of Glasgow, said that although UCU “will be able to apply some moral pressure on Ucea”, that will be “easily batted back”.

“Unless UCU begins the process of membership mobilisation, the best it can hope for is a tiny improvement to assuage any staff anger,” Professor Gall said.

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However, he noted that university lecturers were not seen by the public as providing “essential services” in the way that teachers and doctors do, and said comments made by the education secretary, Bridget Phillipson, ruling out bailouts for financially struggling universities showed the government’s “willingness to ‘hang tough’ on various issues”.

UCU currently lacks a mandate for industrial action after managing a turnout of only 43 per cent in a ballot last November, below the 50 per cent threshold introduced by the Conservatives.

In a poll of UCU branches conducted before the public sector pay rises were announced, 45 per cent of branches said they would be prepared to take industrial action to seek an improved offer, compared with 26 per cent who were not.

Duncan Adam, a senior lecturer in Manchester Metropolitan University’s business school, said the public sector pay rises could trigger a mood change.

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“The branch delegate meeting on which the UCU rejection was based did not show overwhelming support for further industrial action. However, this was before the recent announcements in other areas of the public sector, and the intent that the new government has shown to resolve disputes,” he said.

Professor Gall added that while the announcement might mean UCU members were “emboldened to fight for more”, he cautioned that this was “far from clear at the moment”.

Ucea, meanwhile, is standing firm. “HE finances are close to breaking point, and talk of pay increases outside our sector does not change this,” deputy chief executive Roshan Israni said. “Despite our HE institutions’ ever increasing financial challenges, a realistic and fair pay offer was achieved, alongside an offer to make progress in many of the other important employment areas identified by the trade unions.”

Jo Grady, UCU’s general secretary, said its members were “absolutely clear” that Ucea’s pay offer was insufficient, and “now it would seem that the British government agrees with them, having approved a public sector pay rise of more than double that”.

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“Higher education is a public good: do the employers really think university staff, the sector’s backbone, deserve so much less than millions of their peers?” Dr Grady asked.

juliette.rowsell@timeshighereducation.com