International demand for Australian degrees has rebounded, in the latest sign of the industry’s resilience.

The 24,451 visa applications lodged by higher education students in March was a record for the month, and a reversal of the weak figures earlier in the year.

January and February applications had been at their lowest levels since borders were closed during Covid, prompting fears that government visa policy changes over the past 18 months may have torpedoed overseas demand for Australian degrees – much as Ottawa’s imposition of visa caps had almost halved student flows to Canada.

However, Australia’s buoyant March figures – revealed in Department of Home Affairs data – have restored the visa application tally in higher education almost to pre-pandemic norms.

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Lodgements so far this year are just 11 per cent below the equivalent period in 2019, although they remain 30 per cent lower than in 2023, when pent-up demand during the pandemic fuelled record interest after the borders reopened.

March applications lodged directly from overseas were well above pre-pandemic levels, unlike the January and February figures. Lodgements from the top student market of China hit an all-time high although numbers from India were less than half of their post-pandemic peak.

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However, the March revival was driven primarily by onshore visa applications, which accounted for 63 per cent of the total.

Monash University higher education policy expert Andrew Norton said student visas often expired in March. The record number of onshore applications for higher education visas suggested that thousands of students were seeking fresh visas to pursue further studies or “delay departure”.

Norton said the demand for higher education from foreigners already in Australia had “given the sector a bit of breathing space” which could persist for some time. The department was dealing with a “huge backlog” of unprocessed applications for vocational education visas, promising an ongoing supply of potential onshore applicants when their initial visas expired.

“But eventually that backlog will clear,” Norton said. “The long-term prognosis is pretty bad, unless the migration rules change.”

While universities have blamed declining or uncertain international earnings for a spate of large-scale retrenchments, foreign students outlaid a record A$16.9 billion (£8.1 billion) on higher education tuition fees last year. And a March survey of over 6,000 current and intending international students found that Australia had stolen market share from other major players, despite last July’s 125 per cent increase in visa application fees.

The research by educational services company IDP found that Australia was rated first-choice destination by 28 per cent of respondents, up 5 percentage points from a year earlier, while interest had declined for the US, UK and particularly Canada.

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Demand for Australia had surged even though costs and finances were students’ biggest concern, and Australia’s visa fee – easily the highest in the world – had induced significant numbers to abandon their overseas study plans.

Joanna Storti, IDP’s Asia-Pacific director of partnerships, said “policy and communication shifts” elsewhere – including stricter visa regulations and diplomatic tensions – had boosted interest in Australia. She said post-study employment opportunities Down Under were a “major drawcard”, despite concerns around visa fees.

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“As Canada and the US experience declines in international student demand, Australia is strategically positioned to capture this momentum,” Storti said.

While higher education appears to have shrugged off the government’s attempts to suppress overall inflows, at least for now, other educational sectors have proven less fortunate. Vocational education colleges are attracting fewer applications than in Covid times and rely almost entirely on demand from onshore students, with just 20 per cent of visa bids lodged from abroad.

The situation is even more dire for stand-alone English language colleges, with applications almost 50 per cent lower than in pre-pandemic times and mostly lodged from abroad – suggesting the sector cannot expect salvation from onshore applicants.

Sources say even the A$2,000 visa fee proposed by the governing Labor Party is unlikely to discourage interest from higher education students, whose tuition fees can exceed A$100,000, but could prove a dealbreaker for people eyeing much shorter and cheaper vocational or language courses.

Ian Aird, chief executive of representative group English Australia, said his sector had been “collateral damage” in the government’s drive to relieve housing pressures by reducing overseas student numbers.

 on the Koala website, Aird said English language students were the “wrong target” for the government’s visa crackdown because most took courses of just a few months and did not contribute to migration figures. Nevertheless, visa applications had hit record lows since the visa fee increase, he said.

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john.ross@timeshighereducation.com