Is the Westminster government really going to聽start reversing higher education expansion in聽England?

Conservative ministers have talked about 鈥渢earing聽up鈥� the Blair-era Labour target for 50聽per cent of young people to enter higher education, while this month鈥檚 comprehensive spending review has been expected to announce a minimum entry requirement for loans to聽study at聽higher education institutions 鈥� to聽limit or聽perhaps even reduce student numbers.

Since former Conservative prime minister David Cameron led governments that uncapped student numbers and made student demand the driver of the system, the climate has changed dramatically.

The availability of graduate earnings data by course and institution has stimulated concerns in government about the economic value of expanded higher education; the Conservatives have shifted electoral focus towards Leave-supporting non-graduates in the wake of the Brexit vote; and some in government may have been influenced by commentators on the right who misguidedly claim that university graduates 鈥� although as recently as the 2015 general election, the Tories were the top party among graduates, making the party鈥檚 decline with this group of socially liberal voters seem a product of its strategic choices around Brexit rather than immutable political fact.

探花视频

THE Campus views: The UK must act now to preserve its reputation internationally

Pre-existing Tory scepticism or hostility towards higher education expansion is now mainstream rather than fringe, with potentially major implications for universities and wider society.

鈥淭he mood in Westminster and Whitehall has definitely shifted,鈥� said Lord Willetts, a former universities minister who presided over expansion under Mr聽Cameron. 鈥淢y fear would be [about] opportunities, especially for younger people from tougher areas, where participation is still low; if those opportunities are curtailed, that would be a heavy blow.鈥�

探花视频

Perhaps policymakers, politicians and universities should consider how any move to limit or reduce higher education participation would compare with the trends seen in other advanced economies, including those governed by cousins of the Conservatives on the right; while politicians might also reflect on how such a seismic shift might go down with voters.

On international comparisons, Lord Willetts said: 鈥淚t is the case that most advanced Western countries, most of the time, see increased participation in higher education. Trying to reverse that is an unusual position to聽take.鈥�

In his recent book Generations: Does When You鈥檙e Born Shape Who You聽Are?, Bobby Duffy, professor of public policy at King鈥檚 College London and director of its Policy Institute, notes that the trend for tertiary education participation to increase for each successive age cohort is 鈥渢he same in every country鈥� across the nations of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.

In terms of the proportion holding a university degree, an older US generation of baby boomers are 鈥渙n聽a聽par with鈥� younger UK 鈥淕en聽Xers鈥�, he also writes. The former had much greater access to university earlier, partly thanks to the legacy of the 1944 GI聽Bill, which made having a聽degree 鈥減art of the American Dream鈥�, while the UK had a 鈥渕uch later boom鈥� from the late 1990s onwards.

So the rapid, relatively recent expansion in higher education in England that has alarmed many Tories was arguably a belated catch-up with peers among other advanced economies.

And even in Germany, venerated around the world for its dual vocational system combining in-work apprenticeships with education, 鈥渢he clear trend鈥s that the numbers in our dual vocational training are declining, and the numbers in higher education are rising鈥�, said Frank Ziegele, executive director of the Centre for Higher Education, a German thinktank.

A key tipping point was reached in 2018, when the number of new students entering universities surpassed the number of students entering the vocational system; since then, university enrolment has moved further ahead, said Professor Ziegele (the centre-right Christian Democratic Union has led Germany鈥檚 federal government since 2005, although it is expected to lose power following the recent election).

The primary driver is 鈥渃hange in the labour markets鈥�, the fact that there are now university degrees being offered and increasingly required in fields such as nursing, midwifery and early years education, which were traditionally entered via the vocational system, he continued.

探花视频

Meanwhile in Australia, which shares features with the English higher education system, 鈥渢he 鈥榯oo many people go to university鈥� argument is heard here鈥�, said Andrew Norton, professor in the practice of higher education policy at the Australian National University. 鈥淏ut there is no policy to reduce the number of university students.鈥�

The federal government, led by the centre-right Liberals, last year passed a controversial Job-ready Graduates reform, which reduced tuition fees in subject areas deemed national priorities but more than doubled fees for most humanities and social science subjects.

However, said Professor Norton, 鈥淛ob-ready Graduates should also over the longer term increase the number of student places鈥�, although that will come 鈥渕ostly by cutting average per聽student public funding levels so that unis have to deliver more places to get much the same level of public funding as before鈥�.

Plus, the government is 鈥渆xplicitly trying to increase participation rates in regional areas鈥�, he said. 鈥淚n other parts of the country, the aim is to increase capacity for a demographic surge in the mid-2020s.鈥�

探花视频

Besides England, the US is 鈥渢he only other country where a governing party 鈥� in this case the Republicans in some states, as well as previously at national level 鈥� has a concern about universities as liberal bastions and sees the growth of participation in universities as a source of growing political opposition to themselves鈥�, said Simon Marginson, professor of higher education at the University of Oxford.

But while some Republican-governed states are cutting higher education funding, that 鈥渄oesn鈥檛 hold out across the board, as there are some conservative states that are investing more in higher education to produce an economic return鈥�, said Adrianna Kezar, Wilbur-Kieffer professor of higher education at the University of Southern California and director of its Pullias Center for Higher Education.

Notably, in Tennessee, a strongly red state, the state鈥檚 Tennessee Promise scheme has offered two years of tuition-free community college or technical school to all high school graduates since 2014, regardless of income, in a bid to boost economic and workforce development by increasing the state鈥檚 proportion of residents with a post-secondary qualification.

In addition to having to measure up against rival economies, the Westminster government will be judged by voter opinion 鈥� where higher education access might have emotional traction, connecting as it does with people鈥檚 hopes for their own lives and those of their children.

鈥淭here鈥檚 no evidence that aspirations for higher education have diminished in England, and it would contradict everything we know about modern societies if it had,鈥� said Professor Marginson.

While researching his book on generational differences, Professor Duffy analysed responses over time, across different generations, to the questions in the long-running British Social Attitudes survey that ask respondents whether they think 鈥渙pportunities for young people in Britain to go on to higher education鈥� should be 鈥渋ncreased鈥� or 鈥渞educed鈥�.

Looking at results between 1983 and 2017, Professor Duffy said, 鈥渢here has been a growing generational division in support for expansion of higher education opportunities鈥�. He added: 鈥淚n the 1990s and early 2000s, there was very little difference in views between the oldest and youngest generations at the time, and there was widespread support for expansion 鈥� but now we have around half or more of younger generations like Gen聽Z saying that HE opportunities should be increased, compared with only three in聽10 among older generations.鈥�

But, he went on, 鈥渢his is not to say that these [older] groups want to see a reduction 鈥� in聽fact, only around 15聽per cent of older generations say that should be the case. The majority view among even the older generations鈥s to increase opportunities or at least keep them the same.鈥�

A Westminster government that genuinely tries to restrict or reduce higher education participation might risk looking out of step not just with other advanced economies and with public opinion, but with its own ambitions to create a 鈥渉igh-skill, high-wage鈥� economy.

Perhaps we should think critically about whether the loud voices from some in the Department for Education (DfE) arguing against expansion are viewed as coherent elsewhere in government.

No聽10 (rather than the DfE) has announced a plan to create lifelong loans allowing adults to study on short courses while they work, building to full degrees if they want 鈥� which does not fit with a 鈥渢oo many people go to university鈥� narrative.

In Germany, which has more of a high-skill, high-wage economy than the UK, Professor Ziegele said there was increasing attention on the argument that there should be 鈥渕ore permeability鈥� between the vocational and university tracks. That, he said, is reflected in emerging examples of universities offering courses mixing the two tracks and in the Green Party鈥檚 election manifesto (the party looks set to be included in the new federal government coalition). 鈥淧eople want an individual set of qualifications and competences that they will need in life,鈥� he explained, and the debates about 鈥渕ore here or more there鈥� in vocational or university education were 鈥渢he discussions of yesterday鈥�.

Although some Tories often seek to portray higher education expansion as a Labour policy, in reality the economic shifts away from industry towards services and a knowledge economy set in motion by Margaret Thatcher were also key drivers. Demand for higher education is shaped by wider government choices about labour markets and the structure of economies.

If Boris Johnson really believes in 鈥渟kills, skills, skills鈥� as the route to a high-wage economy, as he said in his recent Tory conference speech, and if there is to be an English system of lifelong loans allowing the kind of 鈥減ermeability鈥� between different kinds of education talked about in Germany, that might mean shifting to a different kind of higher education. But it would also seem likely to mean more, not聽less, of聽it.

探花视频

john.morgan@timeshighereducation.com