Politicians write books on many subjects, in attempts to reveal their competence, their wisdom or their human side. They rarely channel their inner nerd. But that is exactly what Andrew Leigh 鈥 a former professor of economics who is now an Australian MP and the Labor Party鈥檚 shadow assistant treasurer 鈥 has done in Randomistas: How Radical Researchers Are Changing Our World (Yale University Press).
Although the subject seems hardly likely to get voters鈥 pulses racing, the book is devoted to the joys of randomised trials. Indeed, it acquired its title by that very process, after 12 different versions of a similar advert were offered to web surfers (an experiment that took about an hour to set up and cost A$55). Fortunately, Leigh proves adept at bringing this seemingly dry topic to life, making the case for 鈥渢he experimenting society鈥 and citing a number of intriguing examples in areas ranging from bloodletting to philanthropy.
Take the case of the charity Freedom from Hunger and the letters it sent out asking people to donate money. All of them included the story of a poor Peruvian widow called Rita, yet half the recipients were simply told that the charity knew that 鈥渨omen like Rita are ready to end hunger in their own families and in their communities鈥, while the others were informed that Freedom from Hunger 鈥渓ook[ed] for more than anecdotal evidence鈥 and had therefore 鈥渃oordinated with independent researchers to conduct scientifically rigorous impact studies of our programs鈥.
In doing this, the charity was, as Leigh puts it, 鈥渞unning a randomised trial to test whether donors cared that a program was backed by randomised trials鈥. The results were very striking: 鈥渋ncluding information on impact raised donation rates among larger donors, while decreasing generosity among small donors鈥. The genuine altruists, the researchers concluded, cared about results, whereas 鈥渁mong those simply looking for a warm glow, mentioning evaluation raised the spectre that not all aid might be effective鈥.
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Other chapters describe relatively simple tests that have been used to assess the value of different teaching methods, initiatives to cut crime and programmes to improve the lives of the poorest. 鈥淭he best non-government organisations鈥, notes Leigh, 鈥渁re always looking for ways to put their programs to the test, and so improve what they do. They know that a lousy outcome for a program is ultimately a great result for the community, because it means we can stop spending money in ways that don鈥檛 work.鈥
There are also lessons directly applicable to politics. Leigh has met plenty of campaign veterans with firm views about the relative value of communicating with voters via letters, door-knocking, phone calls and posters in electoral campaigns, but 鈥渁sk them about their evidence base and it鈥檚 quickly apparent that their war stories lack a control group鈥. Randomised trials revealed that 鈥渒nocking on a person鈥檚 door is nearly three times as effective as calling them on the telephone, and probably 700 times more effective than sending them a letter鈥, making it distinctly 鈥減uzzling as to why campaigns spend only about one-twentieth of their budgets on personal campaigning鈥.
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It is very cheering that a politician should decide to write such a hymn to the scientific method. We can only hope that it will also appeal to his electorate.
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